Tuesday, November 15, 2005
Any "Exit Strategy" is a Losing Strategy
Although clear to any 12 year old who has played capture the flag that pronouncing an "Exit Stategy" is the surest way to lose, I feel the need to illustrate.
Lets suppose that I am head of a relatively small group trying to take over a country by "terrrorizing" (beating, raping, gasing, beheading, burning alive, etc.) the population. This works out great until "occupying" forces from large, powerful nation with a crazy notion that all people want to be free decides that they have had enough of my regional bully tactics and my "support" of fellow bullies worldwide. These freedom nuts move in and start to destroy everything I have worked so hard to take by force. They keep killing everyone I can convince to fight them. This is really bothersome because to get people to fight, I have to promise a huge reward in the next life and provide plenty of drugs in the current life. The only strategy I can hope for is to get the freedom nuts to leave of thier own will while I am still alive ('cause, damn them, I cannot kill hardly any of them - I have had 2 years and over 100,000 targets everyday and I have barely killed 2,000) . Luckily, they are not too smart and some of them want to tell me when they are leaving. Once I know when they are leaving I can just lay low, wait for them to leave and then take over. Even if they do not set a date, but just tell me what needs to happen before they'll leave I am O.K. with that. I can stop beheading folks or blowing up cars for a few months if I need to, after all, I will need my rest if I am going to fill the gap when they leave.
Giving any emeny the timetable or conditions under which we will withdraw is giving our enemy a monumental strategic advantage. In the past 7,000 years of warfare, countries have killed to keep secrets that gave a 1/100th of the advantage that this would give them.
Explain to me why this is not so?
Lets suppose that I am head of a relatively small group trying to take over a country by "terrrorizing" (beating, raping, gasing, beheading, burning alive, etc.) the population. This works out great until "occupying" forces from large, powerful nation with a crazy notion that all people want to be free decides that they have had enough of my regional bully tactics and my "support" of fellow bullies worldwide. These freedom nuts move in and start to destroy everything I have worked so hard to take by force. They keep killing everyone I can convince to fight them. This is really bothersome because to get people to fight, I have to promise a huge reward in the next life and provide plenty of drugs in the current life. The only strategy I can hope for is to get the freedom nuts to leave of thier own will while I am still alive ('cause, damn them, I cannot kill hardly any of them - I have had 2 years and over 100,000 targets everyday and I have barely killed 2,000) . Luckily, they are not too smart and some of them want to tell me when they are leaving. Once I know when they are leaving I can just lay low, wait for them to leave and then take over. Even if they do not set a date, but just tell me what needs to happen before they'll leave I am O.K. with that. I can stop beheading folks or blowing up cars for a few months if I need to, after all, I will need my rest if I am going to fill the gap when they leave.
Giving any emeny the timetable or conditions under which we will withdraw is giving our enemy a monumental strategic advantage. In the past 7,000 years of warfare, countries have killed to keep secrets that gave a 1/100th of the advantage that this would give them.
Explain to me why this is not so?
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